How defections in Kano will affect the 2023 elections

When you hear the word, Kano, the minds go to the theory of the state that has the deciding power in any General elections in the history of Nigeria. Aside from that, the figure is still in dispute of which state has the largest population between Lagos and Kano.

Kano state has been in the news lately, ranging from the issues of cattle rearing, when the Governor, Mr. Abdullahi Ganduje said the old ways of rearing cattle should be abolished and modern ways should be employed in the way the business is been conducted, also, that of the young schoolgirl, Hanifa, which we may not talk about, it's not so good as it may bring about opening an old wound. 

Newly, is the political disorder, how some big wigs from the ruling All progressive Congress and the opposition People's Democratic party are seen decamping into the New Nigeria People's Party, a party that was created some 21years ago by one Boniface Aniebonam. The party structure is currently being heard due to the catch of a big fish in the Nigeria political ocean, Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Politics is a game of numbers & Interest

Kwankwaso and his Presidential bid

The leader of the Kwankwansiyya movement, Engr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is contesting for the office of the President, under the NNPP, which political analysts as describe the third force aside from the major APC and PDP. Kwankwaso contested for President in the 2015 & 2019 general elections respectively.

In 2015, Kwankwaso, who is a former minister of Defence, almost won the primary elections, held in Lagos, a process observers give the credit to the National leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu for changing the tide of the election in favor of then General Muhammadu Buhari, now President.

Kwankwaso in 2019, pull in again, for the second time, this time under the People's Democratic Party, slugging it out with the likes of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and Senator Bukola Saraki, he came distant 4th with 158votes out of over 2000 votes in the election while Atiku clinches the party ticket.

Contesting again will be the third time he has entered the race for president, with a force from his body language that he will win. He may win, maybe not, Power comes from God.

How defections will affect Kano state and the 2023 elections

The major political parties have been playing a hide and seek game of when and who does the selection of candidates first. It is wrong to play into your opponent's hand in a game, and politics is no different. 

Kano state, will share in the brunt of the puzzle game, with the major defection from major parties, Kano state will be the most hurt in the political calculations come 2023, and most reunion will come from the same state. 

No permanent friend or foe in politics.

So far, the list of people who have decamped into NNPP includes but is not limited to; Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, Deputy speaker of the Kano state house of Assembly, Zubairu Massu, and Former house of reps member Abdulmumin Jibrin, and 13 lawmakers from the PDP and APC respectively.

Other states have followed suit, states as Osun, Jigawa, Kaduna, and a few others, the political implication is that there will be new water in a new jar come 2023.

Can Kwankwaso become Nigeria's President with NNPP?

NO! Considering the political atmosphere of zoning currently in play, Kwankwaso may not be able to fulfill his dream of the presidency come 2023.

Reasons being that;

• The vote from Kano state alone where he has more popularity can't give him the highest number of votes to make him the President, he needs the vote of another state, and as such, he can't get up to 1% in the southern state.

• In 2023, Kano state elders and political decision-makers, may choose to go with the national path, to not be left out after the elections. If they vote for Kwankwaso, and another candidate emerges, it will be a no-win for Kano, as the central government will favor a state where he pulls more votes.

• In another state like Nasarawa, where his Kwankwasiya movement has a visible hold too, he can't say to win even 10% of the state votes, as the state is locked for APC, not even at a time when the Governor is seeking for reelection, and if the APC gives his ticket to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, even the 10% above is not guaranteed anymore. 

• In the end, NNPP and the defection playwright will become a thing of the past, as candidates (If) elected will decamp to the ruling party to share in the national cake and also be part of the scheme of work. No one like to be a lone ranger.

• One of the major loser of this defections saga will be Senator Barau Jibrin, who is currently the Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriations. It will be difficult for him to decide which camp he will pitch his tent to.

At first, he is not on the good page of the Incumbent Governor, and his political 'latest Godfather', Senator Ibrahim Shekarau has decamped to the NNPP, the question that may be going on his mind will be, Where else can I go? 

His fast decision will determine if he can become the next Governor of the state or not, and if not, will he be able to get a return ticket to the Senate? 

In the end, the game will either be a win-win, or a total loss for Ganduje. But, if he plays the cards well against his two predecessors, history may judge him as a political hero, and if the tide also turns more than expected, it might be a stalemate for both camps.